Greenland: Europe’s Moment of Truth
Good morning and happy 2026! We are David Carretta, Christian Spillmann and Oliver Grimm, and we are presenting you the Morning Post Europe. Parts of it are translated with the help of AI, but always edited by one of us.
Today we resume publication after the year-end holiday break. Today’s analysis, by Christian, focuses on Greenland, threatened with annexation by Donald Trump. It is a decisive test for Europe’s sovereignty.
In the day’s briefs, we cover yesterday’s summit in Paris of the Coalition of the Willing on Ukraine. Europeans reiterated their commitment to a multinational force to be deployed in the event of a ceasefire. The EU is close to a breakthrough on Mercosur: after Ursula von der Leyen promised more money for farmers, Italy is expected to vote in favour of the free-trade agreement. There is also news on the post-Brexit front: Keir Starmer appears ready to challenge Nigel Farage over the reset of relations with the EU.
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Greenland: Europe’s Moment of Truth
By Christian Spillmann
An autonomous Arctic territory, Greenland is up for grabs. Stephen Miller — adviser to Donald Trump and an intellectual architect of American “recolonisation” — has persuaded the US president to stake a claim on the island in the name of American security. His argument is simple: Greenland is undefended. Miller’s wife, Katie, a prominent Maga activist, posted on X a map of Greenland draped in the Stars and Stripes, captioned with a single word: “soon”. Europe immediately went into a panic. What is to be done? Trump and his entourage show little interest in history, dismiss treaties, hold international law in contempt and have no desire to engage with European institutions. It matters little to them that Greenland is part of Denmark — a Nato member — and associated with the EU. Their worldview is governed by power and interest alone. Greenland is rich. And, as Miller bluntly put it, “no one is going to oppose the United States militarily over Greenland’s future”. Negotiations will now take place within Nato. But the Europeans are weak, divided and — above all — dependent on the US. Denmark risks losing territory; the EU risks losing what remains of its credibility.
“Greenland should be part of the United States. By what right does Denmark claim control over Greenland?” Miller declared on CNN on Monday. “The United States is Nato’s leading power. If the US is to secure the Arctic region, protect and defend Nato and its interests, then it is obvious that Greenland should belong to the United States.” In a few sentences, Miller set the tone. A central figure in American nationalist hard-right politics, he is one of Trump’s closest advisers and a key architect of US security and political strategy, with direct access to the president.
Trump appears seduced by his adviser’s logic. “We’ll take care of Greenland in about two months,” he announced aboard Air Force One. “We need Greenland for national security reasons. It’s incredibly strategic. And Denmark won’t be able to handle that. Do you know what Denmark has done recently to strengthen security in Greenland? They added one more dog sled. They thought that was a great decision.” The contempt for Denmark — and for Europe — drips from the president’s words. The coarse laughter of his advisers only reinforces Trump’s sense of impunity. The “extra dog sled” allegedly added by Denmark in 2025 actually represents a $4.2bn investment: 16 additional F-35s, two new Arctic patrol vessels, maritime surveillance aircraft, an extra early-warning radar and a suite of drone systems — a substantial effort for a country of six million people.
“It is very difficult to argue your case with people who do not care in the slightest what they are dealing with,” laments Rasmus Jarlov, chair of the Danish parliament’s defence committee. “Stephen Miller ignores Greenland’s population of 57,000. He ignores why the territory belongs to Denmark — a history dating back to 1380, at least four treaties signed by the United States, and a UN General Assembly vote in 1954. This is probably one of the most firmly established territorial arrangements in existence. The US government should study it and respect it.”
Miller also appears unaware — or indifferent — to the fact that the US already enjoys full and exclusive access to Greenland and therefore has nothing to gain from attacking it. “But knowing nothing about Greenland,” Jarlov adds, “he is nonetheless prepared to start a war to seize it.”
American interest in Greenland is nothing new. Trump’s decision to revive the issue is above all a slap in the face for Denmark’s Social Democratic prime minister, Mette Frederiksen. Danish authorities initially opted for a policy of denial: waiting, accommodating Washington, buying American weapons, rejecting France’s proposal to deploy European troops to Greenland — all in the hope that Trump would lose interest.
Frederiksen has now grasped that Trump is serious — particularly after the apparent success of a US military operation in Venezuela to capture the dictator Nicolás Maduro. Her tone has hardened. “If the United States chooses to attack another Nato country militarily, then everything stops,” she warned. “Including our Nato — and therefore the security architecture established since the end of the Second World War.”
If Trump were to intervene militarily in Greenland, Denmark would invoke Article 5 of the Nato treaty and demand collective defence of its sovereign territory. A US veto of such a request would amount to the end of Nato itself.
“An outright American annexation by force seems unlikely,” notes French analyst Stéphane Audran. “There are still checks in place — including in Congress — that could prevent the Trump administration from attacking an allied territory.” What is far more plausible, he argues, is intense diplomatic and economic pressure on Europe, coupled with the search for a deal: “Give us Greenland voluntarily — or we will make your lives miserable, abandon you and humiliate you by taking it by force.” As things stand, Audran adds, Europeans are in no position to “defend Greenland” against US action — except by deploying symbolic forces, effectively daring Trump to shoot at them. Many military experts share this view.
According to The Economist, the US administration is drafting a proposal for a free-association agreement with Greenland, to be offered directly to the island’s authorities. The catch is obvious: such an agreement would require Greenland to be independent — separate from Denmark and the EU. Otherwise, trade policy falls under the EU’s exclusive competence, transferred by Denmark upon joining the bloc.
The European Commission, meanwhile, is conspicuously absent. Its representatives declined to comment on Miller’s remarks or on The Economist’s report. High Representative Kaja Kallas has not discussed Greenland with her US counterpart Marco Rubio, her spokesperson confirmed.
Rubio offered little encouragement. “I do not think the European Union has the right to define international law,” he said. “And it certainly does not have the right to dictate to the United States how it defends its national security.” The message could hardly be clearer.
Greenland’s fate will be decided within Nato. “Greenland is a simple issue,” said Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán — increasingly a spokesman for both Washington and Moscow in Europe. “Since it is an internal matter, it is also a Nato issue. Denmark and the United States are Nato members. If changes are needed, they can be discussed within Nato.” Germany’s foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, echoed this line, telling Reuters that Nato was the appropriate forum to discuss “strengthening Greenland’s protection if necessary”.
But is that really what Washington wants? Beneath its ice, Greenland holds an estimated 1.5m tonnes of rare earths — around 20 per cent of global reserves — as well as oil, gold, diamonds, platinum and iron. The island is rich and coveted. Extraction is difficult, licences are tightly regulated, and social and environmental standards are precisely the kind of constraints Trump loathes. Annexation would be simpler — even if 85 per cent of Greenlanders oppose it. For Trump, everything has a price.
The EU is not entirely without leverage as this test of deterrence begins. Its territorial integrity and sovereignty are at stake. But are Europeans ready to impose sanctions, launch trade retaliation, pursue legal action against Washington — or wage an all-out trade war with the United States? For now, one has reason to doubt it.
The Quote
“We will certainly have to make compromises.”
German chancellor Friedrich Merz on peace in Ukraine.
Geopolitics
A seven-nation statement to deter Trump over Greenland – The move is unprecedented. The leaders of Europe’s main countries joined Denmark’s prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, in a joint statement aimed at responding to Trump’s threats. “Greenland belongs to its people. It is for Denmark and Greenland—and only for them—to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland,” said Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz, Giorgia Meloni, Donald Tusk, Pedro Sánchez and Keir Starmer, alongside Frederiksen. Sovereignty, territorial integrity and the inviolability of borders “are universal principles and we will not stop defending them,” they added. Yet the statement largely reaffirmed Europeans’ willingness to cooperate with Trump: Denmark (including Greenland) is a Nato member, Arctic security is a collective priority within the Atlantic alliance, Europeans are stepping up their commitment, and the United States remains “an essential partner”. EU leaders—Ursula von der Leyen, António Costa and Kaja Kallas—did not sign the statement and refrained from criticising Trump. And yet the EU does have tools to deter annexation. According to French MEP Nathalie Loiseau, what is needed are “very clear warnings: if the United States were to pursue its project of seizing Greenland in one way or another, its companies could be banned from the European market”.
Ukraine: a Franco-British peacekeeping force on land, Turkey at sea – France, the United Kingdom and Turkey yesterday presented in Paris to the leaders of the 35 members of the Coalition of the Willing for Ukraine, gathered for a summit, a plan to deploy a peacekeeping force in Ukraine made up of between 15,000 and 30,000 troops in the event of a peace agreement. France and the UK would provide the bulk of the forces, Turkey would be responsible for maritime security in the Black Sea, and the United States would guarantee logistical and intelligence support, according to Radio Free Europe. Co-hosting the summit with British prime minister Keir Starmer, French president Emmanuel Macron did not confirm the structure, size or participants of such a force. However, Zelensky, Macron and Starmer yesterday signed a “declaration of intent” on the future deployment of a multinational force in Ukraine. “Preparations are under way for the establishment of a multinational force in the air, at sea and on the ground to provide a form of reassurance the day after a ceasefire and away from the line of contact,” Macron said. Italy will not take part, prime minister Giorgia Meloni announced. The Spanish government “will consult political groups to discuss Spain’s contribution to security guarantees,” said Pedro Sánchez.
Zelensky confident about the peacekeeping force – “We know what each country among the members of the Coalition of the Willing is prepared to do. French, British and Ukrainian military leaders have worked in detail on force deployment, troop numbers, specific types of weaponry and the components of the armed forces required and capable of operating effectively. We already have this essential information,” the Ukrainian president said at the end of the Paris summit. Talks were held at the level of chiefs of defence of the coalition countries.
United States tasked with monitoring the ceasefire – “Ceasefire monitoring mechanisms will be placed under American leadership, with contributions from several states that have expressed their readiness,” Emmanuel Macron announced. A “coordination cell enabling the full integration of all relevant armed forces and coordination between the Coalition of the Willing, the United States of America and Ukraine” has been established, the French president added. “We had very in-depth discussions with the American side on monitoring, in order to ensure respect for the peace. The United States is ready to cooperate on this point. One of the most important elements is deterrence—that is, the means to prevent any new Russian aggression,” President Zelensky specified. The United States was represented by special envoy Steve Witkoff and by Jared Kushner, son-in-law of President Donald Trump, both involved in the peace negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow.
Support for the Ukrainian armed forces – The coalition agreed to maintain its military assistance and long-term arms support for the Ukrainian armed forces in order to preserve their operational capabilities, which remain the first line of defence and deterrence, the declaration adopted at the Paris summit states. This support will include in particular: long-term defence programmes; financial assistance for the acquisition of weaponry; continued cooperation with Ukraine on the national budget allocated to funding the armed forces; access to defence stockpiles enabling the rapid deployment of reinforcements in the event of a future armed attack; and technical and practical assistance to Ukraine for the construction of defensive fortifications. “We agreed to continue and deepen mutually beneficial defence cooperation with Ukraine, in particular in the areas of training, joint industrial production in the defence sector (including through relevant European instruments), and intelligence cooperation,” the statement adds.
Poland’s Tusk sceptical about peace – “Today in Paris, Europe, the United States, Canada and other countries spoke with one voice on security guarantees and Ukraine’s future. But I remain sceptical about Russia’s intentions. What we need is to exert strong pressure on it, using all the economic and political means at our disposal,” said Polish prime minister Donald Tusk.
Territorial concessions, the hard knot of the negotiations – Steve Witkoff confirmed that the territorial concessions demanded by Moscow remain the “most critical point” of the upcoming negotiations and said he hoped for compromises. At the end of December, a meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump and phone calls between the US president and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin had failed to produce progress on this issue.
Kallas and the Commission raise their voice with Israel over NGOs – High Representative Kaja Kallas and commissioners Hadja Lahbib and Dubravka Šuica yesterday urged Israel not to enforce its NGO registration law, which prevents several key non-governmental organisations from operating in Gaza at a time when the humanitarian situation “continues to deteriorate”. “With winter approaching, Palestinians are exposed to heavy rain and falling temperatures, without safe shelter. Children are not attending school. Medical facilities are barely functioning, with minimal staff and equipment,” Kallas and the two commissioners said in a joint statement. “We call on Israel to allow international NGOs to operate and deliver life-saving assistance to civilians in need in Palestine. Without these international NGOs, humanitarian aid cannot be delivered at the scale required to prevent further loss of life in Gaza,” they added. For the High Representative and the Commission, international law obliges all parties to a conflict to “allow and facilitate the rapid and unimpeded passage of humanitarian aid”.
Sacred cow
Von der Leyen promises more money for farmers to unlock the Mercosur deal – The Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, yesterday proposed increasing and frontloading resources for farmers in the EU’s 2028–34 budget. The aim is to persuade Italy to back the Mercosur free-trade agreement, leaving the blocking minority that has so far prevented von der Leyen from signing the deal with Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay. The mission appears accomplished. “I welcome the decision of the European Commission to amend, as requested by Italy, the proposal for the new multiannual financial framework in order to make an additional €45bn available for the Common Agricultural Policy as early as 2028,” said Giorgia Meloni. Today the Commission is organising a meeting with agriculture ministers, during which it hopes to further reassure them of its commitment to the sector. Ambassadors from the 27 member states are expected to vote on the Mercosur agreement this week. “We firmly believe in the relevance of this agreement for Europe’s global standing,” a Commission spokesperson said. A new date for the signing has already been set: January 12th, in Paraguay.
Von der Leyen’s accounting and political manoeuvres that undermine cohesion policy – In a letter sent to the Cypriot presidency of the EU Council and to the president of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, von der Leyen proposes an amendment to the new multiannual financial framework allowing €45bn to be disbursed at the start of the programming period in 2028, rather than waiting for the mid-term review normally scheduled for 2032. The money is to be earmarked for the Common Agricultural Policy or rural areas. But the overall size of the 2028–34 budget remains unchanged, as does the structure providing for a single fund for agriculture and cohesion, with resources allocated through national partnership plans. If governments actually use the €45bn for farmers, it will be taken away from cohesion policy. “Von der Leyen’s strategy is clear: whenever protests rise, she increases flexibility for member states, putting in their hands the ability to favour one beneficiary over another,” an EU source told us. “It is a transfer of conflict from Brussels to the capitals.”
Digital
Washington sanctions Breton; X and Grok face multiple investigations – “We have sanctioned Thierry Breton, one of the main architects of the Digital Services Act” (the EU’s digital-services regulation). The decision by the State Department came at the end of December, shortly after the announcement of a €120m fine imposed on X, Elon Musk’s platform, for failure to comply with the rules. Washington has taken “decisive measures against five individuals who orchestrated coordinated actions aimed at forcing American platforms to censor, demonetise and remove American opinions they oppose,” US secretary of state Marco Rubio explained. The move is intended to deter the EU from continuing its pursuit of X. Back in Donald Trump’s good graces, Elon Musk nonetheless has reason to worry. Investigations are multiplying into alleged “algorithmic manipulation” by X, “denialist speech”, and “AI-generated child sexual abuse images produced by Grok”, the artificial-intelligence system created by Musk. “Offering sexual content through AI is illegal, disgusting and has no place in Europe,” the Commission warned on Monday. “X knows very well that we are closely monitoring the enforcement of the DSA. Platforms would be well advised to comply, because the Commission intends to enforce its legislation.” Elon Musk has been put on notice: comply—or face rising and multiplying fines.
Musical chairs
An increasingly crowded race for the ECB vice-presidency – The seat of Luis de Guindos, the Spanish vice-president of the European Central Bank whose term expires in May, is attracting growing interest. At least five countries have decided to put forward a candidate ahead of the deadline on Friday January 9th. The latest is Lithuania, which yesterday formally nominated former finance minister Rimantas Šadžius. Croatia, Estonia, Finland and Latvia have also indicated they will field candidates. The list of contenders includes Croatia’s Boris Vujčić, Estonia’s Madis Müller, Finland’s Olli Rehn and Latvia’s Mārtiņš Kazāks. Portugal is considering whether to nominate Mário Centeno.
Post-Brexit
Starmer ready to take on Farage with regulatory alignment with the EU? – Britain’s prime minister, Keir Starmer, appears determined to push ahead with a “reset” of relations with the European Union, calling into question one of the core tenets of hard Brexit: the UK’s absolute legislative sovereignty. According to the Guardian, Starmer is preparing a bill that would introduce regulatory alignment with EU rules in areas such as agri-food standards, pesticides, animal welfare and energy, paving the way for additional sectoral agreements with the Commission. Defending closer ties with the EU could be a sound strategy for Starmer as he confronts the rise of Reform UK, led by the Eurosceptic Nigel Farage. According to a Daily Mirror poll, 58% of Britons would be willing to vote to rejoin the EU.
Spain
Spain’s conservatives abandon the cordon sanitaire – The leader of Spain’s Partido Popular, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has announced his intention to break the cordon sanitaire against the far right in an effort to take power after the next general election. He did so in a speech on December 29th reviewing 2025. The reason is simple: despite polling ahead of the Socialists, the PP cannot secure an absolute majority. “We will contest the general election to win it. We will seek to govern alone. That remains our goal. But it is clear that, if there is no majority, we will have to find agreements to ensure Spain’s governability. Our cordon sanitaire will be built around Bildu, not around Vox,” said Feijóo. Bildu is a Basque separatist party accused by the PP of being the political heir of ETA. Feijóo’s choice is in line with the strategy pursued by Manfred Weber, president of the EPP, of cooperating with the far right to gain or retain power.
Today’s Agenda
Cypriot EU presidency: opening ceremony with Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa in Nicosia
Commission: extraordinary meeting with EU agriculture ministers
Eurostat: flash estimate of December 2025 inflation; industrial turnover for October 2025; building permits for September 2025