The Limits of the EU’s “Daddy Diplomacy”
Good morning! We are David Carretta, Christian Spillmann and Oliver Grimm, and we are presenting you the Morning Post Europe. Parts of it are translated with the help of AI, but always edited by one of us.
In today’s analysis, David focuses on the EU’s “Daddy diplomacy”: Trump’s plan for Ukraine lays bare all the limits of the strategy of publicly flattering the American president. Accepting the role of vassal ultimately proves counterproductive not only for Ukraine but also for trade.
In today’s briefs, still on the theme of “Daddy diplomacy,” we look at the Trump Administration’s latest blackmail: tariffs on steel and derivatives will be cut only if the EU changes its digital rules in favour of American tech giants. As for Ukraine, Europeans have multiplied their optimistic statements in a high-stakes gamble. In Belgium, Bart De Wever’s government has reached an agreement on the 2026 budget.
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The Limits of the EU’s “Daddy Diplomacy”
By David Carretta
For the fourth time in a year, Europe’s leaders find themselves scrambling to limit the damage for Ukraine after Donald Trump tried to impose on Volodymyr Zelensky a “peace deal” that amounts to capitulation before Vladimir Putin’s Russia. EU leaders yesterday claimed a measure of success after talks in Geneva between American and Ukrainian delegations. “There is a solid basis for moving forward,” said the Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen. “Significant progress,” echoed the president of the European Council, António Costa: “Some issues still need to be resolved, but the direction is positive.” Costa did not fail to “praise the efforts of Presidents Zelensky and Trump and their teams.” Flattery towards Donald Trump has become a permanent fixture of the EU’s diplomatic toolkit. However humiliating the exercise, avoiding catastrophe matters more. But does “Daddy diplomacy” actually work?
The expression “Daddy diplomacy” has taken root in American and European think-tank circles thanks to NATO’s secretary-general, Mark Rutte—one of the European leaders who has made buttering up Trump his trademark. It was he who, at a NATO summit at the end of June, addressed Trump as “Daddy,” lauding him for raising his voice to Iran and Israel. That was not his only homage. In those same days, Europeans were also compelled to bow to Daddy’s will, agreeing to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP. “Donald, you have led us to a truly, truly important moment for America, Europe and the world. You will achieve something NO American president has managed in decades… Europe will pay up, as it should, and it will be your victory,” Rutte wrote in a text message to Trump—one that the American president then chose to publish.
Rutte’s instances of flattery have become too numerous to count. Other European leaders have felt obliged to follow suit. Whether leading a nuclear-armed state with a UN Security Council seat or heading an EU institution, no one spares themselves—or is spared. “I want to personally thank President Trump for his personal commitment and leadership in reaching this breakthrough,” said Ursula von der Leyen on July 26th, after being forced to accept a punitive deal on tariffs. Flattery also comes in the form of silence in the face of humiliation. “I don’t believe it—you’re keeping a low profile today,” Trump quipped to Emmanuel Macron at the Sharm el-Sheikh summit on Gaza in mid-October. “We have a beautiful girl,” he added, introducing Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni.
Beyond words, “Daddy diplomacy” is pursued through deeds. Since Trump’s return to the White House, Europeans have multiplied their concessions in an attempt to keep him onside over Ukraine and prevent an American disengagement from Europe’s security. After the humiliation dealt to Volodymyr Zelensky on February 28th, the EU completely reversed its stance in the trade war launched by Trump, agreeing to suspend retaliatory measures and accepting a tariff deal that works against its interests. Reluctantly, some officials have admitted as much. Several European policymakers—Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, the Commission’s director-general for trade Sabine Weyand, and the European Council’s president António Costa—have acknowledged that Ukraine and Europe’s security were the decisive factors.
Trump’s ingratitude is striking. Ursula von der Leyen’s Commission has effectively stopped enforcing the EU’s digital rules—the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act—against the big American platforms. The Commission and EU finance ministers at Ecofin hesitate to shield Europe from dollar-denominated stablecoins, brushing aside alarms from the European Central Bank, and are prepared to make further concessions to the Administration on minimum taxation for multinationals. Each Omnibus package—from sustainability reporting obligations to artificial intelligence—contains a healthy dose of simplification aligned with American demands.
Faced with allies willing to play the vassal, the appetite grows with the eating. Yesterday, the Trump Administration’s two top trade officials, Howard Lutnick and Jamieson Greer, arrived in Brussels demanding that their counterparts overhaul the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act. European requests, by contrast, have gone largely unheard. The promised elimination of US tariffs on wine and spirits has yet to materialise. Steel tariffs of 50% have been extended to a wide range of downstream products. Italy faces the threat of an anti-dumping tariff of more than 100% on its pasta. Should the EU hollow out its digital legislation, “in return we’ll find a favourable deal on steel and aluminium,” Lutnick told Bloomberg.
“This decision to keep a low profile in the face of the American president has brought absolutely nothing to the Union and to Europeans,” argued Guillaume Duval, adviser to the Jacques Delors Institute, in an article for Social Europe. “Its only effect has been to reinforce the idea, already well established among Donald Trump and his entourage, that the European Union was so weak and incapable of reacting that there was no need to take it into account.” According to Duval, what is needed is “a paradigm shift, a Copernican revolution among European leaders. It has been definitively proven that Donald Trump’s United States is no longer an ally, as they still stubbornly believe, but rather an adversary of the European Union and its fundamental values. European leaders must now act accordingly.”
Asked about “Daddy diplomacy,” European diplomats awkwardly reply that they simply have no alternative. On Ukraine, there is no substitute for American-bought weapons or US military intelligence. For Europe’s security, an American pullback would eliminate the only real deterrent against Putin’s Russia. On trade, the EU cannot afford a showdown: it would lose access to the American market and jeopardise supply chains essential to its own industry, with serious consequences for its economy. Inaction on strategic autonomy and European sovereignty carries a cost.
Yet Ukraine is proving that the price is rising fast. Each time Trump edges back toward Putin’s position, the American president demands new concessions from Europeans. In August, when Trump rolled out the red carpet for Vladimir Putin in Alaska, seven European leaders flew to Washington to shield Zelensky from an unjust peace, promising to foot the bill for US-bought weapons and to assume responsibility for Ukraine’s security through a coalition of the willing. But each time, the story ends the same way: Trump’s “maximum pressure” bears down on Ukraine rather than Russia, and a new plan—drafted by Witkoff and Dmitriev—appears with Putin’s maximalist demands, without any European having been involved or even consulted.
In mid-October, when a Budapest summit between Trump and Putin was announced, following a phone call between the two centred on yet another Witkoff–Dmitriev plan, Europeans were saved only by the blundering of Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, who torpedoed the meeting by reiterating Russia’s “no” to a ceasefire without capitulation. Perhaps the same will happen this time. At least, that is the hope behind the optimistic declarations heard from Europeans yesterday. EU amendments to Witkoff and Dmitriev’s 28-point plan may render the proposal unacceptable for Vladimir Putin. If so, “Daddy diplomacy” will have succeeded—though only until the next round.
The Quote
“Ukraine has chosen Europe, and Europe will stand by Ukraine”.
António Costa, President of the European Council.
Trade Wars
Trump’s new ultimatum: “fewer digital rules, fewer tariffs on steel” – The US Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, and the Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, were hosted at a lunch yesterday by the EU’s trade ministers. The 27 had put on the menu a long list of requests to exempt a range of European products from tariffs—or at least reduce them—such as steel derivatives, wine and spirits. Instead, Europeans had to swallow a new ultimatum: the Trump Administration will discuss any of it only once the EU amends its digital rulebook. “Our suggestion is that the EU take a serious look at its digital regulations and find a balanced approach that works with us. If they manage that, we will tackle steel and aluminium together,” said Lutnick. He also demanded that ongoing cases against American giants like Apple, Amazon and Meta be closed. “Resolve these cases and create a framework in which we are comfortable, and then we can address steel and aluminium with a list that suits the EU,” Lutnick explained.
Panic at the Berlaymont over Daddy’s latest demand – Faced with the new US offensive on digital rules, the Trade Commissioner, Maroš Šefčovič, remained impassive, unable to produce a response commensurate with the ultimatum. “We explained how our legislation works—it’s not discriminatory and it’s not targeted at American companies. We simply need to provide further clarifications; we will engage in that process,” the commissioner said. Not much, in the face of yet another diktat from “Daddy” Trump. Unsurprisingly, Commission spokespeople had to scramble. “We are always open to discussing any issues and potential concerns with partners who share our interests, but this does not change the fact that Europe has the sovereign right to legislate,” one spokesperson stressed. “The objective of our digital legislation is to protect European consumers and businesses. We fully stand by our standards and European values.” The official line is that the EU’s sovereign digital legislation is not up for negotiation—at least for now.
Šefčovič defends himself with hundreds of billions in gas purchases – The commissioner had hoped that a few numbers might persuade Donald Trump to offer minimal concessions to the EU. The Turnberry deal imposed on the EU foresees €750bn in energy purchases from the United States and €600bn in investments. “EU energy purchases—which include LNG, oil and nuclear fuel—have already reached $200bn this year. The share of US LNG imports has risen from 45% to 60%,” Šefčovič said before the lunch with his American counterparts. “Since January, EU investment in the US has totalled €154bn,” he added.
But it does not appear to have been enough to buy the Trump Administration’s goodwill. Greer ruled out concessions even in less significant sectors, such as wine and spirits, before the European Parliament has actually eliminated tariffs on American products. “The most important thing now is implementing the joint statement. It is really difficult to move on to other issues before implementing the text,” Greer said.
Geopolitics
Despite progress for Ukraine, no agreement yet on territory or armed forces – “There is new momentum in the peace negotiations. Yesterday’s meeting in Geneva between the United States, Ukraine, EU institutions and European representatives marked significant progress,” said the president of the European Council, António Costa, after an extraordinary meeting of EU leaders. “Some issues remain to be resolved, but the direction is positive.”
According to several sources after Sunday’s Geneva talks, Ukraine and its allies managed over the weekend to turn a Trump plan for capitulation into a potential pathway to peace. The situation on Friday had been “very complicated,” one of them told us. By Monday, “the United States and Ukraine seem to have a common approach.” The Financial Times revealed that the plan has been reduced to 19 points. Secretary of State Marco Rubio assured Europeans and Ukrainians that Thursday’s deadline is flexible.
Yet several divergences remain, including on Ukrainian territory and limits to its armed forces. Two further questions loom: will Vladimir Putin accept the amended plan? If not, will Donald Trump choose to pressure Russia—or Ukraine and the Europeans?
Costa’s plan B is to keep supporting Ukraine – “The EU’s objective is to stop this war, stop people from being killed and end this war of aggression against Ukraine, and ensure a just and lasting peace for the Ukrainian people,” Costa said. The European Council president’s “plan B,” in case the ongoing US-Ukraine talks fail, is to stick with “plan A.” “The EU is committed to continue providing President Zelenskyy with all the support he needs – diplomatic, military, economic. This concerns in particular financial support to Ukraine. As you remember, we committed to deliver on it in October. And we will, at the December European Council,” Costa said.
The reference is to the €140bn reconstruction loan financed with frozen Russian sovereign assets. While two other options remain on the table, it is the preferred solution for a majority of leaders. Commission spokesperson Paula Pinho said that work on the loan “is moving forward” and has become “even more urgent.” Implementing it will require agreement on risk-sharing, asset management and the handling of potential disputes.
The coalition of the willing steps in to salvage the peace deal – The EU’s unity on Ukraine, claimed by von der Leyen and Costa, is in reality a mirage. At least two countries—Hungary and Slovakia—are blocking support for Kyiv. Others, such as Italy, remain cautious about the reconstruction loan. Its foreign minister, Antonio Tajani, has called for avoiding “premature decisions” on frozen Russian assets. “We strive to work for consensus to present a united front at 27, but sometimes it is not possible,” a Commission spokesperson admitted when asked about the hostile positions of Hungary and Slovakia.
The EU is becoming less and less the central venue for supporting Ukraine. Today, a videoconference of leaders from the coalition of the willing for Ukraine is being held to examine military options to ensure security should a peace agreement between Kyiv and Moscow be reached. With around 30 members, the coalition is an international alliance led by France and the United Kingdom. In September, it floated the idea of forming a “reassurance force” in case of a ceasefire in Ukraine, but few “willing” states have so far volunteered to send troops.
The EU celebrates securing a seat at the Geneva table – “Effective and coordinated European engagement, as well as a strong European presence in Geneva, has allowed us to make good progress in negotiations for a just and lasting peace in Ukraine,” Ursula von der Leyen said yesterday. The Commission president expressed satisfaction at having two EU representatives at Sunday’s Geneva table. One was her chief of staff, Bjoern Seibert; the other was Pedro Lourtie, chief of staff to Council president António Costa. One positive element of the Geneva talks, a diplomat told us, is that for the first time the United States “recognised that European issues must be handled by and with Europeans, and NATO issues by and with NATO.”
Belgium
Belgium has a budget – Members of Arizona, the governing coalition led by Flemish nationalist Bart De Wever, reached an agreement yesterday on a multi-year federal budget marked by austerity, on the first day of a three-day general strike. “This is a robust budget,” declared Bart De Wever. The agreement puts an end to a psychodrama, with doors slamming shut. “Sir, give me fifty days,” the Prime Minister requested during an audience on November 6 with King Philippe, as rumors circulated about his intention to resign. Austerity is announced one month before Christmas. Just over €9 billion has been secured by 2029.
A budget deemed “unpalatable” and painful – The effort is achieved 60% through reduced spending and 40% through new revenue. “I will be very honest: everyone will feel it in their wallet. We cannot deny it (...) If you are not willing to take painful measures, you are not worthy of governing,” explained the Prime Minister. A financial prosecutor’s office will be created, and 370 agents will be recruited to combat tax and social fraud. The reduction in personal income tax will be accelerated, and the federal government will abolish the indexation of salaries above €4,000 gross, but gas bills will increase, and certain products and services will move up to a higher VAT rate. The agreement is deemed “unpalatable” by the CSC, the Christian trade union, the largest in the Kingdom. “Our three days of strike are more relevant than ever,” stated the CSC. “It is always the same people who foot the bill: those who go to work every day and the sick,” denounced the FGTB, the second-largest trade union. The government’s stated goal is indeed to return 100,000 of the 526,000 people on long-term sick leave to work.
Today’s Agenda
EU–African Union summit in Angola
Commission: press conference by Commissioners Mînzatu and Dombrovskis on the autumn package of the European Semester
European Parliament: plenary session in Strasbourg (debates on the European Defence Industry Programme; Democracy Shield; International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women; the 2026 budget; the escalation of war and humanitarian catastrophe in Sudan; online child protection; the Digital Package; EU diplomatic strategy in the Arctic; the political situation in Myanmar and the Rohingya humanitarian crisis)
European Parliament: press conferences by political group leaders
European Parliament: hearing in the delegation for relations with Palestine with UN rapporteur Francesca Albanese
Council: meetings of Coreper I and II
Court of Justice of the EU: ruling on Poland’s refusal to recognise a marriage between two men conducted in Germany
Economic and Social Committee: Annual Human Rights Conference
European Central Bank: speech by Piero Cipollone at the Central Bank of Ireland’s conference on financial systems
Eurostat: data on household incomes, savings and investments in 2024; EU-US trade in Q3; data on energy use in agriculture in 2023; data on domestic and partner-related homicides in 2023